India's absence could push Thai rice exports to record

       Rice exports from Thailand may beat forecasts this year and hit a record in 2010 on higher African demand and a lack of Indian exports, says Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
       "Thailand benefits from India's absence in the world market," Mr Chookiat said yesterday.
       He said exports could be between 8.7 million and 9 million tonnes this year,beating a forecast of 8.5 million, possibly reaching 10 million tonnes next year.
       India suspended most rice exports last year amid concern of a global shortage, which helped trigger record prices.Another hike could occur if rising energy costs raise prices of commodities, said Mr Chookiat.
       "Thai rice exports next year will hit a new high," said Paka-on Tipayatanadaja,an analyst at the Kasikorn Research Center."African demand will expand further in the fourth quarter of this year and into the first half of 2010."
       Rice futures in Chicago peaked at US$25.07 per 100 pounds in April 2008 as India was joined by Vietnam and Cambodia in restricting exports, prompting a rush for supplies from buyers such as the Philippines, the top importer.Rice traded yesterday at $13.30 per 100 pounds.
       "The risk of a food crisis reoccurs every five to six years," said Mr Chookiat."Rice prices could hit a record should global oil prices rise above $120 a barrel."
       The surge last year came as crude prices peaked at $147 a barrel, pushing up farming costs, including fertiliser.Crude traded yesterday at $70.11.
       The outlook for Thai rice exports con-tinues to be robust, said Mr Chookiat. A drought in India this year may help to prolong that nation's shipment curbs.
       Thai rice exports reached a record 10.14 million tonnes in 2004, and last year totalled 10.01 million.
       Output in India will total 82 million tonnes this crop year, according to the US Foreign Agricultural Service. That compares with an earlier forecast of 88 million, and the record 99.2 million harvested in the season ended Sept 30.
       Thailand's 100% grade-B white rice,the benchmark export variety, touched a record $1,038 a tonne in May last year.This week it was at $554 a tonne, the lowest level since May 20. The exporters association sets prices every Wednesday.
       Thai exports of parboiled rice to Africa may rise to about 4.5 million to 5 million tonnes this year, beating a previous forecast of 3.5 million, and may increase to 5.5 million tonnes next year, said Mr Chookiat. In the 2009-10 crop year, starting in November, Thai rice production will total 23.5 million tonnes,1.2% more than in the previous year, according to the Agriculture Ministry.